Maithan Alloys – Salient Features

 Maithan Alloys  is one of the largest ferro alloy manufacturer and exporter.  Has 7-8 % domestic market share .

Current Market Price- 373 , Book Value – 407 ; Market cap – 1087 cr , P/E – 4.76

Investment rationale

1.      Great balance sheet – Company has net cash of 650 -700 cr on its balance sheet, something which is unheard for in this sector. The management wants to use this opportunity to grow through the inorganice route as well the organic route.

2.      Long term growth of the industry depends on the steel sector, as the product made by the company is used in the steel sector. Going ahead we can expect significant tailwinds for this sector as the infra story is yet to be played out in India.

3.      Lowest cost producer of ferro alloys in India. Management is confident of maintaining 15-17 % EBITDA margins in the long term. The margins as well as the balance sheet of the company is superior to its peers.

4.      Low valuations- The company is available at a PE of under 5 and a P/B of < 1. These are very low valuations for a company of such quality. At a market cap of < 1100 cr , removing the cash ,we are left with just 450 cr. ( 1100- 650) . For a company earning at least 150 cr of PAT ( excluding other income) these are very low valuations. Earning have been considered conservatively.

5.      Great track record

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k- thousand tonnes

Production CAGR -11.5%

Sales CAGR –15%

EBITDA CAGR- 19%

PAT CAGR-22%

6.      Good promoter and management quality.

The promoters of the company hold 75 % shares of the company, implying confidence in their own business. There are also no significant related party transactions. There are no pledged shares.  Mr SC Agarwal is the Chairman and Managing director of the company , has 30 years of experience in the industry. His two sons are involved in the company –

Mr. Subodh Agarwal – CEO of the company. Alumni of IIT BHU & IIM Bangalore

Mr. Sudhanshu Agarwal – CFO of the company . MBA from XLRI Jamshedpur

Disc – Not an Investment Advice . I am not a SEBI registered advisor. Me and my family hold shares in the company discussed above.

J Kumar Infra Projects

                                                            J Kumar Infra Projects

Market Cap – 995 cr

Current Market Price – 131

P/E – 5.7

Book value per share – 199.4

ROCE – 14 %

ROE – 9.42 %

Dividend yield – 1.52 %

The company is sharing its profit with shareholders.

BUSINESS

The company is involved in construction activities. The Company designs and constructs roads, bridges, flyovers, subways, over bridges, skywalks and railway terminus/stations, among others.

It was incorporated in the year 1999, and went public in the year 2008 .

The company operates in the states of Maharashtra, Gujarat, Delhi, Rajasthan, & Uttar Pradesh. It derives more than 90 percent of its revenues from the state of Maharashtra.

Company has a track record of completed more than 80 projects, and a strong order book of more than 10,000 crore . It consists mostly of projects which are under execution.

This order book is growing at a fast space for the company. Looking at data for order book from Q2FY19 presentation for the company

 

Quarter Order book ( in crore)
Q2FY15 3057.2
Q2FY16 3676.1
Q2FY17 8289
Q2FY19 9276.8

 

The order book has more than trebled in the last 4 years.

 

The company primarily operates in the business segment of transportation – that is bridges, flyovers, metros, etc.  The company has metro projects of Mumbai, Pune, Ahmedabad which constitute roughly 65 % of its order book.

The company also has a small bit of revenues from the civil segment.

The financial performance of the company has also been very nice as reflected in the numbers.

 

( source -screener.in)

The OPM margins of the company has been in the range of 15- 19 %, better than the industry margins.

10 year sales CAGR – 25.34 %

5 year sales CAGR – 15.43 %

3 year sales CAGR- 15.15 %

10 year profit CAGR – 21.48%

5 year profit CAGR – 12. 5 %

3 year CAGR – 13.08 %

The company is registering good and consistent growth in sales and profits.

The management guides of being able to achieve similar growth in the future also  based on the order book.

The company has a D/E ratio of 0.4 which is better compared to other peers in the same sector.

ROCE = 14 %

ROE = 9.42 %

The return ratios of the company has steadily declined over the years. This has primarily been due to increase in the working capital of the company. The receivable days have increased over the years, causing a longer cash conversion cycle. However the management in concalls indicate that the receivable days will show an improvement in the future. This needs to be closely tracked.

MANAGEMENT

  • Jagdish Kumar Gupta is the founder promoter and the Executive Chairman. ( Age- 71)

Under his leadership, since its modest start in the year 1980, JKIL has expanded and grown as a Registered Class I-A construction company

  • Mr Kamal Gupta – MD ( son of Mr. Jagdish Kumar Gupta)

He is a civil engineer , has been associated with the company since 1997 .

  • Nalin Gupta – MD (son of Mr. Jagdish Kumar Gupta)

Graduated with a degree in B. Com and Member of Indian Institution of Bridge Engineer Associated with JKIL since 1997 and carries with him an experience of over 21 years.

Below is the table showing the management salaries with respect to the total PAT of the company over the years. The management seems to be taking modest salaries.

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
PAT ( cr) 84 94 98 107 137
Jagdish Kumar  Gupta 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 3
As % of PAT 1.43% 1.28% 1.22% 1.12% 2.19%
Kamal J Gupta 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.5
As % of PAT 1.07% 0.96% 0.92% 0.84% 1.09%
Nalin J Gupta 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.5
As % of PAT 1.07% 0.96% 0.92% 0.84% 1.09%
Total Salary ( cr) 3 3 3 3 6
As % of PAT 3.57% 3.19% 3.06% 2.80% 4.38%

With both sons of Mr. Jagdish Kumar Gupta in the business since 21 years we don’t have to worry about the succession plans.

The management conducts concalls every quarter , which I believe is a positive. The management has also been delivering the performance at they indicate in the concalls.

VALUATION

The company is available at at P/E of 5.7 and P/B of 0.7.

Hence the valuation is on the lower side for the company.

Looking at the past valuations of the company this has been one of the lowest valuations for the company.

RISKS

The company derives majority of the revenues from the state of Mahrashtra. Hence a slowdown in the infra spending in Maharashtra can be bad for the company.

Majority of the revenues of the company are from the transportation sector, hence the concentration risk is there.

The company has an ongoing SEBI case. It is under investigation by the SEBI. In 2008 the company had taken a contract for PACL  ( at that time PACL was not a shell company) and subcontracted it to another company . The management indicates that SEBI has clarified during its meetings that it is not looking at Jkumar Infra as a shell company. SEBI only needs to clarify the transactions as per the management. They further indicate that the whole transaction was done in cheque and the amount was only 4 cr was earned as profit on this transaction. They have already paid 1 cr as tax on this profit earned as well.

So, the management overall believes that this SEBI issue is a very very small matter and its only a matter of time before it will get resolved. This issue is one of the reason for the stock price of this stock getting hampered.

CONCLUSION

J kumar infra has a strong order book , strong track record of execution , stronger margins than peers, and a robust balance sheet. The reason we are getting this company at cheaper valuations is the general perception towards infra companies , the SEBI issue, etc. If the SEBI issue clears up , there can be potential upside in this stock.

DISCLOSURE

I am personally invested in this stock. This is not an investment advice. I am not a SEBI registered Investment Advisor.

 

 

 

 

 

Review of ‘The Little Book That Beats The Market’

It is a wonderful, short and precise book written by Joel Greenblatt. Wall Street Journal describes it as “the best, clearest guides to value investing out there “. The author explains a ‘magic formula’ for picking up stocks in your portfolio, which he has followed for the past 20 years.

About the author

Joel Greenblatt is the founder of Gotham Capital that has achieved a phenomenal 40% annualized returns for the last 20 years. He holds a BS and MBA from Wharton School. He is a professor of adjunct faculty of Columbia Business School, former chairman of the board of a Fortune 500 company.

About the Book

The book initially touches upon the concept of why investing in stocks is a wise thing to do with your money. It’s a way of indirectly making someone else create wealth for you, it’s a way of becoming entitled to a portion of someone else’s business future earnings. The other alternate methods of putting your money to ‘good’ use like keep it under a mattress or giving it out as loans unfortunately does not work well for compounding it.

But simply making a decision to invest in the stock market will not make you rich, the world isn’t so sweet! The real challenge is picking up your portfolio of 15-30 stocks from a list of thousands of publicly listed stocks available. Before we come to the part of stock selection let us understand the significance of intrinsic value of a business. Intrinsic value is the fair value of a business, which represents the true value of the business. It is hard to determine accurately because a lot depends on how the person estimating it perceives the quality of assets, or the future earning potential of the business. Although it is hard to determine the intrinsic value, a rough estimate of the intrinsic value is crucial for investing. Benjamin Graham, one of the greatest stock market thinker and writer of all time, talks about a concept of Mr. Market (an analogy for the stock market). Imagine you are partners in a business with a man known as Mr. Market. Mr. Market is subject to mood swings and offers to buy or sell his share of the business at different prices every day. The ideal step for you will be to sell when he is quoting above the intrinsic value and buy when he is quoting below the intrinsic value. But the question arises how do you know the intrinsic value and recognize whether the business is trading above that value or below it. The next part of the book deals with that problem and also the ‘magic formula’ that has worked so well for the author.

The magic formula covers two important concepts of investing.

1- The price/earning (PE ratio).

This signifies the price a business is available at, with respect to the earnings of the business. It is a measure of how cheap or expensive the market values a particular business. It is simply =

The price of a share / Earning per share

  1. Return on invested capital.

It is the NOPAT / (Net working capital + net fixed assets)

NOPAT is net operating profit after tax. It is used to remove the effect of some windfall gain or exceptional loss life forex gain/loss, or some other income not related to the business operation of the company.

Net working capital + net fixed assets determine the amount of capital put into running the business.

This formula is the test of how bad or good quality the business actually is, how effectively the company is making use of the money put into the business.

Now the ideal combination will be to find companies which generate great return on invested capital but available at discounts to their intrinsic value. This is what the magic formula is all about.

  1. Rank all the public listed companies sin your universe in according to their PE ratios (from lowest to highest) & Rank all the companies according to their return on invested capital (from highest to lowest).

2.Add the rank number assigned to each company in both the lists and form a 3rd list.

  1. The top 30 companies in this list can be selected to form your portfolio

This simple formula has been used by the author from 1988 to 2004, a period of 17 years, to get a marvelous rate of return of 30.8%. Let that sink in!

Now let us address the concerns we may have while using the formula.

  1. if the magic formula has been giving superior returns compared to the market, why doesn’t everybody follow it, increase the prices of stocks identified using the formula and make the excess return over the market disappear?

The magic formula fared poorly relative to the market averages 5 out of every 12 months tested. For full year periods, the magic formula failed to beat the market averages once every four years. For one out of every six periods tested, the magic formula did poorly for more than 2 years in a row. During those wonderful 17 years for the magic formula, there were some periods the formula did worse than the overall market for 3 years in a row!

These periods of underperformance is good news for patient value investors wanting to apply the formula! It keeps most investors away from the formula thereby safeguarding the superior performance of the formula over the long term.

  1. The magic formula has worked for the author by selecting from a universe of 3500 stocks. What if we want to limit it to a smaller universe of only larger companies?

Let us raise the bar a little bit, if instead of top 3500 we make it top 2500 companies the formula still delivers a return of 23.7 percent CAGR versus the annual market return of 12.4 %, during the same period tested. If we want to restrict it further to the top 1000 stocks, it still gives an annual return of 18.9 percent over the same period beating the market comfortably.

  1. What if I am a person who understands how to analyze companies, read and interpret the financial statements, what can the magic formula possibly offer me?

The magic formula can be used as an effective checklist for filtering out the stocks needed to be studied. In this case a person can dig deeper into the stocks suggested by the magic formula and build a more concentrated portfolio than the ones suggested by the formula alone. Such a portfolio will have greater chances of achieving a better return than simply using the formula.